As of September 17, 2026 — real salaries, injuries, and depth charts refreshed today. Salaries and matchup data can still move before lock — injury news and line moves aren’t reflected here until the next update.
Here’s the real value board for Week 2, pulled straight from this week’s salaries — no hand-picked “sleepers,” just the players whose points-per-salary clears the bar for their price.
Back to this site’s own model this week
Week 1’s board ran on DK’s own published FPPG instead of this site’s model, disclosed at the time as a deliberate, temporary stopgap — with zero 2026 games played yet, the model’s “recent form” number was necessarily built 100% from last season. That’s no longer true. A real Week 1 has been played, and this site’s model now blends that actual result into its own trailing-form calculation.
Checked directly before switching back: DK’s own FPPG turns out to be just the single most recent game, full stop — no regression at all. Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 1 bust (3.2 points) is his entire FPPG number now; Bijan Robinson’s Week 1 boom (31.3) is his. This site’s model reacts to that same real result too, but blends it into a longer trailing window instead of treating one game as the whole picture — which is the point of a projection in the first place. Back to the model as the default ranking basis, as planned from the start.
This week’s top value plays
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX — $5,800, 26.8 projected (4.62 per $1k) Jacksonville’s confirmed starter, and the top skill-position value on the board — DK’s own FPPG (26.1) is almost identical, real agreement between two independent numbers.
Tyler Shough, QB, NO — $5,300, 20.8 projected (3.93 per $1k) New Orleans’ confirmed starter. DK’s FPPG runs hotter here (29.2) — this site’s model is the more conservative read for this one.
Bryce Young, QB, CAR — $5,400, 20.4 projected (3.79 per $1k) Carolina’s confirmed starter. The widest QB gap on this board — DK’s FPPG sits at 35.4, more than 70% above this site’s model. One real data point driving that DK number hard; worth real caution rather than assuming it repeats.
Jacoby Brissett, QB, ARI — $5,000, 18.6 projected (3.73 per $1k) Arizona’s confirmed starter, with reasonable agreement (16.5 DK FPPG).
Drake London, WR, ATL — $6,000, 20.8 projected (3.46 per $1k) The single biggest divergence on this board, and worth naming directly rather than around: DK’s FPPG is 5.5 — London’s actual Week 1 line, where he was the slate’s #2-biggest bust. This site’s model still has him projected at 20.8, a real, deliberate disagreement with what just happened, not an oversight. That’s the model doing what it’s supposed to — reading one bad game as one data point in a trailing window, not a new baseline. Worth tracking either way it resolves.
Derrick Henry, RB, BAL — $7,200, 24.7 projected (3.42 per $1k) Confirmed lead back, still clearing value at a premium price. DK’s FPPG runs well above (38.3, his real Week 1 number) — this site’s model is the more conservative read.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF — $8,000, 26.2 projected (3.27 per $1k) The most expensive name on this board, and it still clears — DK’s FPPG (13.8) is a real outlier low here, worth checking his Week 1 usage before assuming the cheaper read is the safer one.
Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL — $8,200, 26.4 projected (3.22 per $1k) Confirmed lead back in this week’s real tight-spread, two-sided matchup edge (see the matchup analysis). DK’s FPPG (31.3) and this site’s model are in real, reasonable agreement.
Trey McBride, TE, ARI — $6,900, 21.7 projected (3.15 per $1k) The clean top-tier tight end value this week, close agreement with DK’s own number (24.5).
Antonio Williams, WR, WAS — $4,400, 13.8 projected (3.13 per $1k) Not a confirmed #1 — WR3 on Washington’s real depth chart, carrying a real 0.84x role-rank discount in this site’s own model for exactly that reason. Included anyway on a genuine Week 1 signal: he matched Terry McLaurin’s own target count (4) and out-produced every Washington pass-catcher on efficiency (4-for-4, 64 yards, 1 TD, 16.4 real points). One game isn’t a confirmed role change — treat this as a real discount flier, not a lock.
Worth knowing: defenses lead this week’s value board
Six of the top ten values by raw points-per-salary this week are defenses — Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Houston, Atlanta, Denver, and Seattle all clear 3.5+ per $1k, a heavier defensive concentration than Week 1’s board, which skewed quarterback-heavy instead. Two, worth a specific flag: Houston’s defense carries the single widest model-vs-DK gap on the entire board (this site’s model has them at 12.9 points; DK’s own FPPG has them at -2.0, their real Week 1 result). And Atlanta’s defense pairs with the real matchup edge already covered in this week’s matchup analysis — the same team showing up favorably in two independently-built pieces of content, not a coincidence to downplay.
FAQ
Why did this board switch back to the model instead of DK’s FPPG?
Because the reason for the Week 1 swap no longer applies. That stopgap existed because this site’s own model had zero current-season games to build a “recent form” number from. A real Week 1 is now on file, and the model’s trailing-form calculation incorporates it — the trigger condition for switching back, stated explicitly when the stopgap started, has been met.
Doesn’t the model still have a very small current-season sample?
Yes, and that’s disclosed, not hidden — one real game is a thin sample for any method. The difference is what each method does with that one game: DK’s FPPG treats it as the entire number, no regression at all. This site’s model blends it into a longer trailing window that still leans on prior-season history until more current-season games exist. Neither is “solved” yet, but one of the two is designed not to overreact to a single outlier.
Why isn’t every high-value name on this board a pick?
Because “value” only measures points against salary — it doesn’t know whether a player’s current role actually supports getting those points. This week’s board is checked against real, team-reported depth-chart data before any role gets described as a “starter”; when that data doesn’t back the number up (Antonio Williams above), this post says so directly instead of quietly including the name anyway.
Does an injury designation change the numbers?
Yes — a real “Questionable,” “Doubtful,” or “Out” status pulls a player’s projection down in this site’s model, and an “Out” designation excludes a player from this board outright regardless of ranking basis. Any remaining designation is shown as a plain label so you can weigh it yourself.
When does this get updated before kickoff?
Whenever a salary, projection, or depth-chart change is significant enough to matter. Check the “as of” line at the top of the post — it always reflects the most recent real update, not just when this was first published.
For the full ranked board — not just the top picks — plus this week’s player pool by position and tier, that’s happening in the community.