As of September 30, 2026 — real salaries, injuries, and depth charts refreshed today. Salaries and matchup data can still move before lock — injury news and line moves aren’t reflected here until the next update.
Here’s the real value board for Week 4, pulled straight from this week’s salaries — no hand-picked “sleepers,” just the players whose points-per-salary clears the bar for their price. This week’s model now carries three real weeks of current-season results in its trailing-form calculation.
This week’s top value plays
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX — $5,900, 24.9 projected (4.22 per $1k) Jacksonville’s confirmed starter, and the top value on the entire board. DK’s own FPPG (18.0) runs well below this site’s model — a real disagreement worth tracking.
Brock Purdy, QB, SF — $6,700, 25.6 projected (3.83 per $1k) Confirmed starter, reasonable agreement with DK’s own number (27.3). Worth one honest caveat beyond DK’s own number, though: an independent outside projection source lands close to dead even on him this week — genuinely split, not the clean consensus pick the salary alone would suggest.
Chase Brown, RB, CIN — $6,100, 21.6 projected (3.53 per $1k) Confirmed starter bouncing back from a real quiet Week 3 — and the strongest cross-source agreement on this entire board. Two independent outside reads this week landed on the same specific case: a real 22-25-15 touch range over his last three weeks with only one touchdown to show for it, a genuine buy-low ahead of touchdown regression rather than a hopeful guess. DK’s FPPG (13.0) still reflects the quiet recent game more heavily than either read above does.
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, NYJ — $4,000, 13.9 projected (3.47 per $1k) The single best tight end value on the whole board, with DK’s own number in close agreement (13.9) — two independent reads landing on the same number.
Christian Watson, WR, GB — $6,700, 23.2 projected (3.46 per $1k) Confirmed starter, close agreement with DK’s own FPPG (24.1).
Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF — $7,700, 26.3 projected (3.41 per $1k) Confirmed lead back, still clearing value at a premium price. DK’s FPPG (19.3) runs cooler here — this site’s model is the more bullish read.
Derrick Henry, RB, BAL — $8,400, 28.4 projected (3.38 per $1k) The most expensive name on this board, and it still clears — real, reasonable agreement with DK’s own number (26.0). One real caveat from a different comparison, though: an independent outside projection source agrees he belongs in this tier but lands notably lower on his exact point total — this site’s model is the more bullish of the two reads specifically, worth knowing before treating his ceiling as settled.
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI — $3,100, 10.3 projected (3.33 per $1k) Not a confirmed #1 — TE2 on Philadelphia’s real depth chart, carrying a real role-rank discount in this site’s own model for exactly that reason. Included anyway on real value: DK’s FPPG (1.9) is a genuine outlier low here, the single widest gap on this week’s board — worth checking recent usage before assuming the cheaper read is the safer one.
Michael Wilson, WR, ARI — $5,500, 18.2 projected (3.31 per $1k) Confirmed starter, DK’s FPPG (13.4) running cooler — real, moderate disagreement. An outside source’s read on the underlying usage backs the higher number: a real 35% first-read target share, top-5 on the entire slate by that measure, still priced like a complementary piece rather than a real target earner.
Trey McBride, TE, ARI — $6,500, 20.7 projected (3.19 per $1k) The clean top-tier tight end value this week, close agreement with DK’s own number (19.7).
Worth knowing: one real availability risk beyond the salary tag
Justin Jefferson (MIN, $7,300) isn’t a value play — he’s priced like the star he is — but he’s worth a direct flag anyway. DK only lists him Questionable, but real signal points toward Minnesota sitting him entirely this week: the team is already 3-0, has a Week 6 bye coming up, and has no real reason to push a lingering ankle issue. That’s a genuine inactive risk, not a normal game-time call, and it’s worth knowing before anyone builds around him assuming a standard Questionable-tag outcome.
Worth knowing: defenses lead this week’s value board again
Four of the top values by raw points-per-salary this week are defenses — Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Seattle all clear 3.4+ per $1k. Las Vegas leads the entire board at any position (5.25 per $1k), with real agreement from DK’s own number (12.3). Seattle’s defense carries the widest model-vs-DK gap of the group — this site’s model has them at 12.1 points, DK’s own FPPG has them at 7.7, a real 57% gap worth watching either direction.
FAQ
Why isn’t every high-value name on this board a pick?
Because “value” only measures points against salary — it doesn’t know whether a player’s current role actually supports getting those points. This week’s board is checked against real, team-reported depth-chart data before any role gets described as a “starter”; when that data doesn’t back the number up (Zach Ertz above), this post says so directly instead of quietly including the name anyway.
Does an injury designation change the numbers?
Yes — a real “Questionable,” “Doubtful,” or “Out” status pulls a player’s projection down in this site’s model, and an “Out” designation excludes a player from this board outright regardless of ranking basis. Any remaining designation is shown as a plain label so you can weigh it yourself.
Why do some players show such a large gap against DK’s own FPPG?
DK’s FPPG is a simple recent-average number with its own real limitations — it can lag a role change, overweight one big or one bad recent game, or simply use a shorter window than this site’s model. Neither number is automatically “right”; a large gap is a real signal worth investigating, not an error to explain away.
When does this get updated before kickoff?
Whenever a salary, projection, or depth-chart change is significant enough to matter. Check the “as of” line at the top of the post — it always reflects the most recent real update, not just when this was first published.
For the full ranked board — not just the top picks — plus this week’s player pool by position and tier, that’s happening in the community.