As of September 10, 2026, before Week 1 kickoff — real salaries, injuries, and depth charts refreshed today, plus one real fix: a player ruled Out could previously still rank on this DK-FPPG board (DK’s own number doesn’t zero out for game-day status the way this site’s model does) — closed at the source, not just patched for this one player. See the update log below. Salaries and matchup data can still move before lock — injury news and line moves aren’t reflected here until the next update.
Here’s the real value board for Week 1, pulled straight from this week’s salaries — no hand-picked “sleepers,” just the players whose points-per- salary clears the bar for their price. If you’re new to what “value” means here, the value plays hub covers the math once; this post applies it to this week’s real slate.
Why this board is DK-FPPG-based this week
Every projection on this site is normally built from this site’s own model — recent-form data, run through real depth-chart and team-change discounts (see the August 30 update this post used to carry). That model has a real limitation right now, specific to this exact moment in the season: with zero 2026 games played yet, its “recent form” number is necessarily built 100% from last season. The depth-chart and team-change discounts help correct for known role changes, but they don’t manufacture real current-season signal that doesn’t exist yet.
So for this one update, the board below is ranked and valued by DK’s own published FPPG instead — a deliberate, temporary swap, not a permanent change to how this site projects players. This isn’t a clean fix either: DK’s own methodology isn’t published, and a direct check found it carries the same stale-prior-team problem for some players that this site’s own model had before its August 30 fix. Three names below — Darren Waller, Kyler Murray, and Wan’Dale Robinson — are back on this board for exactly that reason: DK’s own number doesn’t apply the real depth-chart/team-change discount this site’s model does for them. Included deliberately, with this note, not quietly.
This site’s own model projection is shown alongside DK’s FPPG for every player below, so the gap stays visible either way. Revisit this call once real 2026 results exist and this site’s own recent-form data has actual current-season signal to lean on again — likely by Week 3 or 4.
This week’s top value plays
Cleveland DST — $2,100, 7.8 DK FPPG (3.71 per $1k) Cheapest name on the board with real production behind it, and this site’s own model agrees closely (7.4 projected vs. 7.8 DK FPPG) — the two independent numbers essentially match here.
Houston DST — $2,900, 10.6 DK FPPG (3.66 per $1k) The single biggest gap between DK’s number and this site’s own model on this board (10.6 vs. 6.6, a 38% difference) — worth real caution rather than blind trust. Included because the swap this week is deliberate, but flagged here specifically since it’s the widest divergence in the top 10.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX — $5,800, 21.0 DK FPPG (3.62 per $1k) Jacksonville’s confirmed starter, and the top skill-position value on the board this week. This site’s own model is meaningfully higher here (25.5 projected vs. 21.0 DK FPPG) — DK’s number is the more conservative of the two for this specific player.
Jacoby Brissett, QB, ARI — $5,100, 18.0 DK FPPG (3.53 per $1k) Arizona’s confirmed starter. The two numbers are close (19.9 projected vs. 18.0 DK FPPG) — reasonable agreement for a real Week 1 starter.
Daniel Jones, QB, IND — $5,400, 18.7 DK FPPG (3.46 per $1k) Indianapolis’ confirmed starter, with DK’s number and this site’s own model nearly identical (17.9 vs. 18.7) — one of the closer agreements on this board.
Tucker Kraft, TE, GB — $4,500, 15.4 DK FPPG (3.42 per $1k) Green Bay’s confirmed starting tight end. His earlier Questionable designation has since cleared — no injury flag as of this update. A real gap remains between the two numbers (11.5 projected vs. 15.4 DK FPPG, 25% divergence) — down from 34% three days ago, but still the second-widest gap in the top 10, behind Houston’s defense above.
Josh Allen, QB, BUF — $7,000, 23.3 DK FPPG (3.33 per $1k) The most expensive name on this list by a real margin, and it still clears value — a premium-priced, high-floor starter rather than a cheap name the market underpriced. The two numbers agree closely (24.2 vs. 23.3).
Jared Goff, QB, DET — $6,000, 19.3 DK FPPG (3.22 per $1k) Detroit’s confirmed starter, with near-exact agreement between DK’s number and this site’s own model (19.4 vs. 19.3) — as close as any pairing on this board.
Worth knowing: QB value is even more concentrated on this board
Six of this week’s top ten values by this methodology are quarterbacks — more concentrated than the already QB-heavy board this post carried under its own model. That’s a real difference in how the two methodologies price positional value against Week 1 salaries, not a curated list. Whether that holds once this site’s own model has real current-season data to work with again is an open question, not an assumption.
Update log
This post gets regenerated every couple of days between now and kickoff — real salaries, real depth charts, and real injury designations shift over that window, and the honest move is to show that shift, not pretend Week 1 certainty exists three weeks out. Each entry below is what actually changed, not just a timestamp bump.
- September 10, 2026 — Real data refresh (fresh salaries, injuries, depth charts) plus one real fix, not just new numbers: this board’s DK-FPPG ranking had no equivalent to this site’s own model, which zeros a player’s projection entirely once they’re ruled Out. DK’s own FPPG doesn’t reflect game-day status at all, so an Out player’s historical average could still rank — confirmed live when Michael Penix Jr., ruled Out this week, still landed at #20 on this board at his unadjusted number. Out players are now excluded from this board regardless of which number ranks it, the same way buried backups already were. Separately: Tucker Kraft’s Questionable tag has cleared, and several numbers moved with the fresh data (see the top-plays section above) — normal week-of drift, not another methodology change.
- September 7, 2026 — Methodology change, not a data refresh: this board is now ranked and valued by DK’s own published FPPG instead of this site’s own model, an explicit early-season stopgap (see “Why this board is DK-FPPG-based this week” above). This site’s own model projection is still shown for every player, for comparison. Darren Waller, Kyler Murray, and Wan’Dale Robinson are back on the board as a known, accepted consequence — DK’s own number doesn’t apply this site’s real depth-chart/team-change discounts for them.
- August 30, 2026 — Real model change, not just a data refresh: added two new discount factors (depth-chart rank below #1, and an offseason team change) after finding James Conner’s and Kyler Murray’s projections were built on a role/team they no longer have. David Njoku, James Conner, Jauan Jennings, Darren Waller, Wan’Dale Robinson, Kyler Murray, and Joe Flacco all dropped off the top-22 board as a result — legitimately discounted, confirmed non-zero, not deleted.
- August 27, 2026 — Initial publish.
FAQ
Why is this board ranked by DK’s own FPPG instead of this site’s own model this week?
Because this site’s own model’s “recent form” data is necessarily 100% built from last season this early — there are zero 2026 games on file yet. Rather than present that as more current than it actually is, this one update leans on DK’s own published number instead, with this site’s own model projection still shown for direct comparison. See “Why this board is DK-FPPG-based this week” above for the full reasoning, including its own real limitation.
Doesn’t DK’s own number have the same problem?
Partly, yes — and that’s disclosed, not hidden. A direct check found DK’s FPPG clearly adjusts for some players whose team or role changed this offseason, but not others. Darren Waller, Kyler Murray, and Wan’Dale Robinson are on this board specifically because DK’s own number doesn’t apply the same real depth-chart/team-change discount this site’s model does for them.
Why isn’t every high-value name on this board a pick?
Because “value” only measures points against salary — it doesn’t know whether a player’s current role actually supports getting those points. This week’s board is checked against real, team-reported depth-chart data before any role gets described as a “starter” or similar; when that data doesn’t back the number up, this post says so directly instead of quietly including the name anyway.
Does an injury designation actually change the numbers?
Yes, in two ways now. In this site’s own model, a real “Questionable,” “Doubtful,” or “Out” status pulls a player’s own-model projection down before they’d show up on this site’s normal board. And as of September 10, an “Out” designation excludes a player from this board outright, regardless of which number (DK’s or this site’s) is doing the ranking — DK’s own FPPG doesn’t adjust for game-day status on its own, so that exclusion is applied directly rather than assumed. Any remaining designation is still shown as a plain label so you can weigh it yourself.
Does the matchup affect this week’s rankings?
Not this week — DK’s own FPPG doesn’t factor in this site’s matchup multiplier at all, so it plays no role in this particular board’s ranking. It still applies to this site’s own model projection shown alongside each player.
When does this get updated before kickoff?
Whenever a salary, projection, or depth-chart change is significant enough to matter. Check the “as of” line at the top of the post — it always reflects the most recent real update, not just when this was first published.
For the full ranked board — not just the top picks — plus this week’s optimizer-built lineup and the reasoning behind it, that’s happening in the community.