As of Nov 2, 2:04 PM ET, before tonight’s 11 games (first tip 7:00 PM ET). Injuries checked 2:04 PM ET. Projection snapshot 5e3bc4af. Injury news can change this before lock.
The model’s top three value picks tonight are Javon Small (MEM, $3,300, 24.4 projected points), Julian Reese (NOP, $3,000, 21.3) and Bilal Coulibaly (WAS, $4,200, 25.3). Reese played 3.0 minutes in his latest game after three straight did-not-plays, and the model still expects him to play 21.8, so he is the shakiest of the three. The biggest minutes story is Indiana: Andrew Nembhard, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are among eight Pacers listed Out, and three Indiana players sit at ranks 6 through 8, one of them (Larry Nance Jr.) listed Questionable. Six players who would have ranked in the top ten are set aside tonight because their latest game was a did-not-play. No lineups are published yet. The Out list has 61 players.
Who is out and where the minutes go
61 players are listed Out. The ten with the most minutes, biggest first:
- Paolo Banchero, ORL, $8,800, averages 37.3 minutes
- Jalen Suggs, ORL, $5,900, averages 34.7
- Tobias Harris, SAS, $5,200, averages 34.3
- Anthony Edwards, MIN, $9,200, averages 34.0
- Andrew Nembhard, IND, $7,100, averages 33.3
- Tyrese Haliburton, IND, $8,400, averages 33.0
- Maxime Raynaud, SAC, $5,600, averages 31.8
- Pascal Siakam, IND, $7,900, averages 31.3
- Kon Knueppel, CHA, $7,000, averages 30.9
- Chet Holmgren, OKC, $6,800, averages 29.9
Indiana has eight players Out (Nembhard, Haliburton, Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Ivica Zubac, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard and T.J. McConnell), and the model counts 91.1 teammate minutes newly out for the Pacers who are playing. That moves a few of them well above their recent averages:
- Braden Smith, IND, $3,100: 5.3 weighted to 18.7 expected, projected 6.0 points, limited history
- Jalen Slawson, IND, $3,500: 15.6 weighted to 22.3 expected
- Larry Nance Jr., IND, $3,600, listed Questionable: 19.2 weighted to 26.0 expected
- Kelly Oubre Jr., IND, $4,800: 23.6 to 25.9
- Jarace Walker, IND, $4,600: 23.3 to 25.5
The gain is 6.7 minutes for Slawson and Nance, 13.4 for Smith and 2.2 for Oubre and Walker, so the players with the lowest baselines gain the most. For how much minutes move when a rotation player sits, see the minutes and injuries data.
For four rotation players the two sources disagree about whether they are out. DraftKings lists Nic Claxton (CHI), Dylan Cardwell (SAC) and Santi Aldama (DAL) as Questionable, while ESPN lists them Out. DraftKings lists Kingston Flemings (ATL) as Out and ESPN lists a suspension. The model treats all four as out, and none is on the board. If one of them is cleared before lock, his teammates’ projections would change.
The value board
The board is the top 10 by projected points per $1,000 among players projecting 15 or more, with one screen applied: a player whose latest game was a did-not-play is set aside unless DraftKings’ starter flag is published for him. Minutes show the recency-weighted average the model used, then expected minutes tonight. The notes show each player’s regular-season record from the model’s graded games, with minutes played for those who played.
No team has published a starting five as of 2:04 PM ET, so nobody below is described as a starter or a backup.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Weighted avg to expected minutes | Projection (80% range) | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javon Small (MEM) | $3,300 | 23.6 to 23.1 | 24.4 (11.7 to 37.7) | 7.4x | Played 20.0 in his only game; preseason flag, see below |
| 2 | Julian Reese (NOP) | $3,000 | 22.4 to 21.8 | 21.3 (8.7 to 34.7) | 7.1x | Played 3.0 on Oct 31; did not play Oct 24, 28 or 29; preseason flag; low confidence |
| 3 | Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) | $4,200 | 25.2 to 24.7 | 25.3 (12.6 to 38.6) | 6.0x | Played 29.0, 26.0, 25.0, 29.0, 27.0, 22.0; preseason flag, see below |
| 4 | Jahmai Mashack (MEM) | $3,000 | 25.6 to 25.1 | 18.0 (7.3 to 30.2) | 6.0x | Played 4.0 on Oct 31; did not play Oct 21, 23 or 25; low confidence |
| 5 | Kyshawn George (WAS) | $5,600 | 31.0 to 30.5 | 32.5 (18.5 to 46.7) | 5.8x | Played 29.0, 26.0, 36.0, 29.0, 38.0, 32.0 |
| 6 | Jalen Slawson (IND) | $3,500 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 20.0 (7.4 to 33.4) | 5.7x | Played 16.0, 8.0, 3.0, 12.0, 18.0, 18.0; did not play Oct 21; expected minutes above any game this season |
| 7 | Larry Nance Jr. (IND) | $3,600 | 19.2 to 26.0 | 20.6 (7.9 to 33.9) | 5.7x | Listed Questionable; projection assumes he plays; played 5.0, 1.0, 22.0, 19.0, 23.0, 18.0, 26.0 |
| 8 | Jarace Walker (IND) | $4,600 | 23.3 to 25.5 | 26.2 (13.5 to 39.5) | 5.7x | Played 19.0, 17.0, 19.0, 29.0, 22.0, 28.0, 20.0 |
| 9 | Isaiah Collier (UTA) | $4,200 | 20.8 to 20.3 | 23.6 (11.0 to 37.0) | 5.6x | Played 16.0, 18.0, 13.0, 21.0, 24.0, 20.0 |
| 10 | Paul Reed (DET) | $6,300 | 27.2 to 26.7 | 35.1 (21.0 to 49.3) | 5.6x | Played 17.0, 26.0, 23.0, 26.0, 38.0, 31.0 |
One board pick is listed Questionable as of 2:04 PM ET: Larry Nance Jr. (IND, rank 7). The projection assumes he plays. If he sits, the same board rule gives the open spot to Meleek Thomas (CLE, $3,600): 20.3 weighted to 19.9 expected minutes, 19.7 projected points, range 9.0 to 31.9, 5.5x, with limited history (3 games played, and he did not play Oct 22 or 24). The order of the table above is unchanged, and this is a comparison, not a replacement.
The original board, before the screen
This table is the board as the model ranked it before the did-not-play screen. It is the version the graded record has used so far. The six players set aside are marked.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Projection | Value | Set aside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cormac Ryan (MIL) | $3,000 | 28.9 | 9.6x | Yes: did not play Oct 31 (not listed in the box score) |
| 2 | Rayan Rupert (PHI) | $3,800 | 29.4 | 7.7x | Yes: did not play Oct 31 (coach’s decision) |
| 3 | Javon Small (MEM) | $3,300 | 24.4 | 7.4x | No |
| 4 | Jalen Wilson (ATL) | $3,000 | 22.2 | 7.4x | Yes: did not play Oct 31 (not listed in the box score) |
| 5 | Julian Reese (NOP) | $3,000 | 21.3 | 7.1x | No |
| 6 | Patrick Williams (CHI) | $3,000 | 21.1 | 7.0x | Yes: did not play Oct 30 (coach’s decision) |
| 7 | Bilal Coulibaly (WAS) | $4,200 | 25.3 | 6.0x | No |
| 8 | Obi Toppin (IND) | $4,900 | 29.4 | 6.0x | Yes: did not play Nov 1 (not listed in the box score); also listed Questionable |
| 9 | Jahmai Mashack (MEM) | $3,000 | 18.0 | 6.0x | No |
| 10 | Ben Saraf (BKN) | $3,000 | 17.6 | 5.9x | Yes: did not play Nov 1 (not listed in the box score) |
The screen reads only the latest game. Reese and Mashack each played a few minutes on Oct 31 after three straight did-not-plays, so the screen lets both through, and the model still projects them for 21.8 and 25.1 minutes. A screen that also set aside players who played under 10 minutes in their latest game would remove both. That version has been tested on past nights but is not part of the screen used here.
What sits behind the top five
Javon Small, MEM, $3,300. He has one regular-season game, 20.0 minutes and 16.3 DraftKings points on Oct 31, against a 5x benchmark of 16.5. The model uses a weighted 23.6 minutes and 23.1 expected, with 24.3 minutes over his last 10 games last season. At 1.07 points per minute he projects to 24.4, range 11.7 to 37.7, against a DraftKings average of 16.3. The preseason screen flags him as demoted: he started 7 of his last 10 games last season and came off the bench in all 4 preseason games, averaging 10.5 minutes. The projection uses last season’s minutes. Treat him as a low-confidence pick.
Julian Reese, NOP, $3,000. He did not play on Oct 24, 28 or 29, all coach’s decisions, then played 3.0 minutes on Oct 31 for 2.8 DraftKings points. The model uses a weighted 22.4 minutes and 21.8 expected, with 28.0 over his last 10 games last season, so the two averages differ by about a quarter. At 1.01 points per minute he projects to 21.3, range 8.7 to 34.7, against a 5x benchmark of 15.0 and a DraftKings average of 2.8, a gap of 18.5 points. The preseason screen flags him as demoted: he started 7 of his last 10 games last season and averaged 6.0 minutes in 3 preseason games without a start. This is the lowest-confidence pick on the board.
Bilal Coulibaly, WAS, $4,200. He has played 29.0, 26.0, 25.0, 29.0, 27.0 and 22.0 minutes in Washington’s six games, scoring 27.5, 21.0, 15.0, 12.3, 28.0 and 10.8 DraftKings points. The model uses a weighted 25.2 minutes and 24.7 expected, and his last-10 average is 24.8. At 1.04 points per minute he projects to 25.3, range 12.6 to 38.6, against a 5x benchmark of 21.0 and a DraftKings average of 19.1. He cleared 21.0 in three of six games, and he started the first four and came off the bench in the last two. The preseason screen flags him as demoted: he started 8 of his last 10 games last season and averaged 19.0 minutes in 4 preseason games without a start. Anthony Gill, Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic, Alexandre Sarr and Reece Beekman are Out for Washington.
Jahmai Mashack, MEM, $3,000. He did not play on Oct 21, 23 or 25, then played 4.0 minutes on Oct 31 for 3.5 DraftKings points. The model uses a weighted 25.6 minutes and 25.1 expected, with 27.6 over his last 10 games last season. At 0.72 points per minute he projects to 18.0, range 7.3 to 30.2, against a 5x benchmark of 15.0 and a DraftKings average of 3.5. Four minutes in the latest game against 25.1 expected makes this a low-confidence pick, and so does a 14.5-point gap from DraftKings’ average.
Kyshawn George, WAS, $5,600. He has started all six games, with 29.0, 26.0, 36.0, 29.0, 38.0 and 32.0 minutes and 31.3, 19.8, 47.3, 29.0, 29.0 and 23.3 DraftKings points. The model uses a weighted 31.0 minutes and 30.5 expected, and his last-10 average is 26.6. At 1.08 points per minute he projects to 32.5, range 18.5 to 46.7, against a 5x benchmark of 28.0 and a DraftKings average of 29.9. He cleared 28.0 in four of six games.
Jalen Slawson, IND, $3,500. He averages 18.0 minutes and 15.6 weighted, and the model expects 22.3 with 91.1 teammate minutes out. His six games ran 16.0, 8.0, 3.0, 12.0, 18.0 and 18.0 minutes, so 22.3 is above anything he has played this season, and he did not play on Oct 21. At 0.89 points per minute he projects to 20.0, range 7.4 to 33.4, against a 5x benchmark of 17.5 and a DraftKings average of 9.3. He cleared 17.5 once, with 20.8. Low confidence.
Larry Nance Jr., IND, $3,600. He is listed Questionable and the projection assumes he plays. His 10-game average is 13.9 minutes and the weighted figure is 19.2, a gap of about 40%, and the model expects 26.0 because Indiana is short of rotation players. The DraftKings average is 10.9 against a projection of 20.6, and the difference is the minutes: at 0.79 points per minute he projects 20.6, range 7.9 to 33.9, against a 5x benchmark of 18.0. He played 5.0 and 1.0 minutes in his first two games and 22.0, 19.0, 23.0, 18.0 and 26.0 since, and cleared 18.0 once, with 21.0. Low confidence.
Jarace Walker, IND, $4,600. He averages 24.1 minutes and 23.3 weighted, with 25.5 expected. At 1.02 points per minute he projects to 26.2, range 13.5 to 39.5, against a 5x benchmark of 23.0 and a DraftKings average of 19.3. He cleared 23.0 in two of seven games, with 31.5 and 30.0.
Isaiah Collier and Paul Reed follow in the table. Meleek Thomas (CLE), Caleb Wilson (CHI) and OG Anunoby (NYK) are off the board after the Indiana players moved up.
Decisions still pending
Fourteen rotation players are listed Questionable. Six average 28 minutes or more: Joel Embiid (PHI, $8,900, averages 33.6 minutes), Jalen Johnson (ATL, $9,700, 33.1), Zach LaVine (SAC, $6,500, 30.2), Dejounte Murray (NOP, $7,800, 30.2), Kyrie Irving (DAL, $7,600, 28.8) and Reed Sheppard (HOU, $5,100, 28.6). The others are Peyton Watson (CLE, $5,400), Jalen Smith (CHI, $5,100), Obi Toppin (IND, $4,900), Scotty Pippen Jr. (MEM, $4,100), Mitchell Robinson (BOS, $4,400), Quinten Post (MEM, $3,500), Larry Nance Jr. (IND, $3,600) and Tobe Awaka (CHI, $3,100).
If the Questionable teammates sit, none of the ten board picks changes in the model’s figures. Off the board, it moves Atlanta’s Corey Kispert from 9.2 to 13.4 projected points and Asa Newell from 11.9 to 16.1, and Chicago’s Tobe Awaka from 13.8 to 17.5.
Of the 87 graded players listed Questionable or Doubtful, 79% did not play, against 7% of healthy players. That is a small sample, but it is why a Questionable tag deserves a second look before lock.
How the projections have done
13 nights are graded, covering 35 slates, 3,451 projections and 2,688 players who played. On points, across the same 2,590 players, the model missed by 8.05 on average, against 8.14 for DraftKings’ season average and 8.08 for the model with its injury logic turned off. On minutes, the model missed by 5.51, against 5.50 for a plain recent average. The 80% range held the actual result 77% of the time, short of the 80% target.
The value board has trailed more. Its 350 picks hit 5x salary 25% of the time and averaged 14.3 points. Ranking by DraftKings’ season average instead gave 42% and 25.2 points. The did-not-play screen used on this page changes that picture in a replay: with it, the same 350-pick history hits 36% and averages 21.7 points. That replay uses a rule written after seeing these nights, so the 36% is not a live result. On the 250 picks since the rule was first proposed on Oct 25, the original board hit 23% and the screened board 34%. Thirteen nights is a small sample. Method details are in how the projections are made and graded.
Before you use any of this
Everything here is as of the snapshot time above and can change before lock, and the games tip between 7:00 PM and 10:00 PM ET. No lineups are published. The 80% range means roughly four in five outcomes land inside it, so one in five do not. A range is not a guarantee, and with last season’s numbers underneath and preseason roles the model cannot see, tonight’s projections deserve extra suspicion. Three players in the pool have no baseline and are left off the board.
If you want to talk through tonight’s slate, the DFS Engineer Playbook community on Skool covers NBA as well as NFL: join here.
FAQ
What does the 80% range mean?
The range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of past misses at the same projection level. About four in five outcomes should land inside it and about one in five fall outside, above or below. A player projected at 32.5 with a range of 18.5 to 46.7 can finish outside that window without the projection being wrong. So far the actual results have landed inside the range 77% of the time.
Why do a player’s minutes change when a teammate is out?
The model starts from a recent-average baseline and adjusts it for how many rotation minutes teammates are newly missing. Those minutes go to the players who remain, and the size differs for bench players, role players and high-minute players. Tonight Indiana’s players have 91.1 teammate minutes newly out, and Jalen Slawson and Larry Nance Jr. are each expected 6.7 minutes above their weighted averages, while the other board picks sit within about 0.6.
How are the projections made and graded?
Projected points equal points per minute over the last 30 games times expected minutes. Expected minutes start from a recent-average baseline and shift with teammate absences. Projections are saved before lock and later graded against actual results, including the value board shown above. Early in the season the inputs come from last season, and only 13 nights have been graded so far.