As of Oct 24, 6:02 PM ET, before tonight’s 5 games (first tip 7:30 PM ET). Injuries checked 6:02 PM ET. Projection snapshot 258ff30a. Injury news can change this before lock.
The model’s graded board has seven players who sat out their most recent regular-season game, and the projection cannot see that. The top pick, Rayan Rupert (PHI, $3,000, 30.6 projected points), did not play in either of Philadelphia’s two games, both coach’s decisions, and came off the bench in all four preseason games before that. Oscar Tshiebwe (HOU) and Jalen Wilson (ATL) did not play in either of the two games the model projected them for, and Cormac Ryan, Ben Saraf, Patrick Williams and Josh Minott each missed the one game they were projected in. The model builds minutes from last season, so it still gives these seven 21 to 37 expected minutes. With them set aside, the board leads with Jaylen Brown (PHI, $7,700, 46.8), VJ Edgecombe (PHI, $5,600, 33.5) and Kevin Durant (HOU, $7,500, 44.8), all of whom played at least 33 minutes in each of their team’s games. The biggest minutes story is LeBron James, who averages 37.2 minutes and is Out, and the model adds 0.5 minutes to each of Brown, Edgecombe, Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Seven of the 10 board picks rest on a baseline from last season, and the preseason screen flags four of them for a role change or a team change. The seven $3,000-range names are questions about who plays, not plays, and this post screens them out below. The board is thin before lineups come out.
Who is out and where the minutes go
23 players are listed Out. The 15 with a minutes average, biggest first:
- LeBron James, PHI, $7,000, averages 37.2 minutes
- Tobias Harris, SAS, $5,400, averages 34.3
- Cooper Flagg, DAL, $8,800, averages 29.4
- Santi Aldama, DAL, $4,700, averages 27.5
- Jamir Watkins, WAS, $3,000, averages 24.7
- Steven Adams, HOU, $4,400, averages 24.1
- Nic Claxton, CHI, $5,800, averages 22.1
- Caleb Martin, DAL, $3,000, averages 18.0
- Tristan Vukcevic, WAS, $3,800, averages 17.5
- Dereck Lively II, DAL, $4,400, averages 16.4
- Nae’Qwan Tomlin, CLE, $3,000, averages 10.9
- Dominick Barlow, PHI, $3,000, averages 10.7
- Mouhamed Gueye, ATL, $3,000, averages 10.5
- Jett Howard, DAL, $3,000, averages 10.5
- Ariel Hukporti, PHI, $3,000, averages 7.5
Eight more have no minutes average in the model: AJ Dybantsa (WAS, $6,300), Fred VanVleet (HOU, $5,800), Jayden Quaintance (SAS, $3,000), Henri Veesaar (ATL, $3,000), Khalifa Diop (CLE, $3,000), Tacko Fall (PHI, $3,000), Tyler Bilodeau (BKN, $3,000) and Tarik Biberovic (DAL, $3,000).
No player is expected well above his recent average minutes, so the minutes-mover list is empty tonight. The largest gains are 0.5 minutes, for four Philadelphia players with 37.2 teammate-minutes out (James): Jaylen Brown goes from 36.3 weighted to 36.8 expected, VJ Edgecombe from 34.8 to 35.4, Joel Embiid from 32.8 to 33.3 and Tyrese Maxey from 40.0 to 40.5. Houston’s Kevin Durant (37.6 to 37.7) and Amen Thompson (39.4 to 39.5) gain 0.1 with Steven Adams’ 24.1 minutes out, and Dallas’s Naji Marshall gains 0.1 with Cooper Flagg’s 29.4 out (29.3 to 29.4). For how much minutes move when a rotation player sits, see the minutes and injuries data.
The value board
The board is the top 10 by projected points per $1,000 among players projecting 15 or more. Minutes show the recency-weighted average the model used, then expected minutes tonight. No team has published a lineup as of 6:02 PM ET, so no player below is described as a starter or a backup. The notes show each player’s regular-season record from the model’s graded games, with minutes played for those who played.
This first table is the model’s board exactly as it will be graded. Seven of its 10 rows did not play in their latest regular-season game, and none has a published starter flag. All seven also rest on a baseline from last season. Read those rows as questions about who plays, not as picks.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Weighted avg to expected minutes | Projection (80% range) | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayan Rupert (PHI) | $3,000 | 36.2 to 36.7 | 30.6 (16.6 to 44.8) | 10.2x | Did not play 2 of 2 |
| 2 | Cormac Ryan (MIL) | $3,000 | 31.3 to 31.0 | 29.0 (16.4 to 42.3) | 9.7x | Did not play Oct 21 |
| 3 | Oscar Tshiebwe (HOU) | $3,000 | 24.9 to 25.0 | 28.8 (16.2 to 42.1) | 9.6x | Did not play 2 of 2 |
| 4 | Ben Saraf (BKN) | $3,000 | 29.8 to 29.4 | 23.5 (10.9 to 36.8) | 7.8x | Did not play Oct 21 |
| 5 | Jalen Wilson (ATL) | $3,000 | 26.8 to 26.4 | 21.0 (8.4 to 34.4) | 7.0x | Did not play 2 of 2 |
| 6 | Patrick Williams (CHI) | $3,200 | 30.2 to 29.8 | 21.1 (8.5 to 34.5) | 6.6x | Questionable; did not play Oct 21 |
| 7 | Josh Minott (BKN) | $3,000 | 21.6 to 21.2 | 19.0 (8.4 to 31.3) | 6.3x | Did not play Oct 21 |
| 8 | Jaylen Brown (PHI) | $7,700 | 36.3 to 36.8 | 46.8 (29.3 to 61.0) | 6.1x | Played 35.0, 38.0 |
| 9 | Jericho Sims (MIL) | $3,000 | 22.7 to 22.3 | 18.1 (7.5 to 30.3) | 6.0x | Played 2.0 Oct 21 |
| 10 | VJ Edgecombe (PHI) | $5,600 | 34.8 to 35.4 | 33.5 (19.5 to 47.7) | 6.0x | Played 35.0, 33.0 |
Patrick Williams (CHI, $3,200) is listed Questionable, and the projection assumes he plays. DraftKings lists him Out. If he sits, the same board rule gives the open spot to Justin Champagnie (WAS, $4,100): 23.7 weighted to 23.3 expected minutes, 24.5 projected points, range 11.9 to 37.8, 6.0x, against a DraftKings average of 20.8. The order of the table above is unchanged, and this is a comparison, not a replacement.
The board without the recent did-not-plays
This second table applies the same rule to everyone who played in their latest regular-season game, or whose lineup is published and lists them as a starter. It is a comparison for readers. The graded record above is unchanged, and this screen is new tonight, so it is not part of the scorecard.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Weighted avg to expected minutes | Projection (80% range) | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylen Brown (PHI) | $7,700 | 36.3 to 36.8 | 46.8 (29.3 to 61.0) | 6.1x | Played 35.0, 38.0 |
| 2 | VJ Edgecombe (PHI) | $5,600 | 34.8 to 35.4 | 33.5 (19.5 to 47.7) | 6.0x | Played 35.0, 33.0 |
| 3 | Kevin Durant (HOU) | $7,500 | 37.6 to 37.7 | 44.8 (27.3 to 59.0) | 6.0x | Played 37.0, 37.0 |
| 4 | Joel Embiid (PHI) | $8,000 | 32.8 to 33.3 | 47.3 (29.8 to 61.6) | 5.9x | Played 33.0, 34.0 |
| 5 | Naji Marshall (DAL) | $4,800 | 29.3 to 29.4 | 28.2 (15.6 to 41.5) | 5.9x | Played 29.0, 33.0 |
| 6 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) | $5,700 | 32.7 to 32.1 | 33.3 (19.3 to 47.5) | 5.8x | Played 31.0 |
| 7 | Amen Thompson (HOU) | $7,400 | 39.4 to 39.5 | 42.5 (25.0 to 56.8) | 5.8x | Played 33.0, 36.0 |
| 8 | Tyrese Maxey (PHI) | $8,200 | 40.0 to 40.5 | 46.7 (29.2 to 61.0) | 5.7x | Played 40.0, 42.0 |
| 9 | Leonard Miller (CHI) | $5,000 | 29.1 to 28.5 | 27.5 (15.0 to 40.9) | 5.5x | Played 26.0, flagged demoted |
| 10 | Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | $10,700 | 36.1 to 35.5 | 56.7 (39.2 to 71.0) | 5.3x | Played 34.0, 32.0 |
Leonard Miller (CHI, $5,000) is flagged as demoted by the preseason screen: he averaged 19.8 minutes in the preseason against 29.6 over his last 10 games last season, and the projection uses last season’s minutes.
Jaylen Brown, PHI, $7,700. He averages 35.0 minutes over his last 10 games and 36.3 weighted, and the model expects 36.8, a gain of 0.5 with 37.2 teammate-minutes out (James). At 1.28 points per minute he projects to 46.8, range 29.3 to 61.0, against a 5x benchmark of 38.5 and a DraftKings average of 39.8. He played 35.0 and 38.0 minutes in Philadelphia’s two games.
VJ Edgecombe, PHI, $5,600. He averages 36.4 minutes and 34.8 weighted, with 35.4 expected, a gain of 0.5. At 0.96 points per minute he projects to 33.5, range 19.5 to 47.7, against a 5x benchmark of 28.0 and a DraftKings average of 25.9. The model sits 7.6 above DraftKings’ number, and the extra minutes from James’ absence are part of the reason. He played 35.0 and 33.0 minutes.
Kevin Durant, HOU, $7,500. He averages 36.9 minutes and 37.6 weighted, with 37.7 expected, a gain of 0.1 with Adams out. At 1.21 points per minute he projects to 44.8, range 27.3 to 59.0, against a 5x benchmark of 37.5 and a DraftKings average of 41.1. Two Houston players are listed Questionable (Marcus Smart and Reed Sheppard), and if both sit the model moves him to 45.6. He played 37.0 minutes in both games.
Joel Embiid, PHI, $8,000. He averages 34.0 minutes and 32.8 weighted, with 33.3 expected, a gain of 0.5. At 1.44 points per minute he projects to 47.3, range 29.8 to 61.6, against a 5x benchmark of 40.0 and a DraftKings average of 40.3. He played 33.0 and 34.0 minutes.
Naji Marshall, DAL, $4,800. He averages 30.1 minutes and 29.3 weighted, with 29.4 expected, a gain of 0.1 with Flagg’s 29.4 minutes out. At 0.98 points per minute he projects to 28.2, range 15.6 to 41.5, against a 5x benchmark of 24.0 and a DraftKings average of 31.8. If Dallas’s two Questionable players sit, the model moves him to 28.1. He played 29.0 and 33.0 minutes.
The seven who sat out their latest game
Rayan Rupert (PHI, $3,000) did not play on Oct 20 or Oct 22, both coach’s decisions, when the model had him at 36.3 and 35.6 expected minutes. Tonight it expects 36.7, and the projection still uses last season’s minutes from Memphis. In four preseason games for Philadelphia he averaged 20.5 minutes and did not start. Oscar Tshiebwe (HOU, $3,000) did not play on Oct 21 or Oct 23, and Jalen Wilson (ATL, $3,000) did not play on those two dates either, both listed as not in the box score. Cormac Ryan (MIL, $3,000), Ben Saraf (BKN, $3,000), Patrick Williams (CHI, $3,200) and Josh Minott (BKN, $3,000) each did not play on Oct 21, and the box score lists a coach’s decision for Saraf, Williams and Minott. Rupert joined Philadelphia from Memphis, and the model has not seen him with the new roster. Tshiebwe joined Houston from Utah and averaged 11.3 minutes in three preseason games without a start. Saraf averaged 11.7 minutes in three preseason games without a start, against 27.3 over his last 10 games last season. Wilson joined Atlanta from Brooklyn and averaged 17.0 minutes in four preseason games without a start. Rupert and Tshiebwe are low confidence for those reasons. Williams is also listed Questionable tonight. A lineup that shows any of the seven as a starter would change this, and this post will not describe any of them as a starter until a lineup says so.
Decisions still pending
Six rotation players are listed Questionable: Marcus Smart (HOU, $4,500, averages 32.3 minutes), Max Christie (DAL, $4,500, 28.1), Reed Sheppard (HOU, $4,800, 27.2), Patrick Williams (CHI, $3,200, 25.4), Dean Wade (PHI, $3,200, 20.8) and Zaccharie Risacher (DAL, $4,600, 15.7). If they sit, the model moves four players who are not on the board: Moussa Cisse (DAL) from 15.8 to 20.3, Clint Capela (HOU) from 9.1 to 13.0, Marcus Sasser (DAL) from 15.6 to 18.8 and Daniel Gafford (DAL) from 21.5 to 24.6. DraftKings also lists Kyrie Irving (DAL, $6,800) as Out. The model has no history for him, so he is not in the lists above.
Of the 15 graded players listed Questionable or Doubtful, 73% did not play, against 8% of healthy players. That is a small sample, but it is why a Questionable tag deserves a second look before lock.
How the projections have done
Four nights are graded, covering 10 slates, 1,039 projections and 806 players who played. The record so far favors DraftKings’ season average over the model. On points, the model missed by 8.52 on average, against 8.12 for DraftKings’ average and 8.45 for the model with its injury logic turned off. On minutes, the model missed by 6.27 against 6.15 for a plain recent average. The 80% range held the actual result 74% of the time, short of the 80% target.
The value board has trailed more. Its 100 picks hit 5x salary 22% of the time and averaged 13.0 points. Ranking by DraftKings’ season average instead gave 45% and 22.7 points. Last night the model did better on points, missing by 8.22 against 8.74 for DraftKings across 279 players, though its 30 value picks hit 13% of the time. Four nights is a small sample, and the did-not-play screen used on this page tonight is not part of that record. Method details are in how the projections are made and graded.
Before you use any of this
Everything here is as of the snapshot time above and can change before lock, and the games tip between 7:30 PM and 8:30 PM ET. No lineups are confirmed yet. The 80% range means roughly four in five outcomes land inside it, so one in five do not. A range is not a guarantee, and with last season’s numbers underneath and preseason roles the model cannot see, tonight’s projections deserve extra suspicion. One player in the pool has no baseline and is left off the board.
If you want to talk through tonight’s slate, the DFS Engineer Playbook community on Skool covers NBA as well as NFL: join here.
FAQ
What does the 80% range mean?
The range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of past misses at the same projection level. About four in five outcomes should land inside it and about one in five fall outside, above or below. A player projected at 46.8 with a range of 29.3 to 61.0 can finish outside that window without the projection being wrong. So far the actual results have landed inside the range 74% of the time.
Why do a player’s minutes change when a teammate is out?
The model starts from a recent-average baseline and adjusts it for how many rotation minutes teammates are newly missing. Those minutes go to the players who remain, and the size differs for bench players, role players and high-minute players. Tonight Philadelphia is missing 37.2 minutes, so the model adds 0.5 to each of three Philadelphia picks and little to the rest.
How are the projections made and graded?
Projected points equal points per minute over the last 30 games times expected minutes. Expected minutes start from a recent-average baseline and shift with teammate absences. Projections are saved before lock and later graded against actual results, including the value board shown above. Early in the season the inputs come from last season, and only four nights have been graded so far.