As of Oct 26, 6:33 PM ET, before tonight’s 7 games (first tip 7:00 PM ET). Injuries checked 6:33 PM ET. Projection snapshot 159dd7c9. Injury news can change this before lock.
Five of the model’s top 10 value picks did not play in their most recent regular-season game, and the projection cannot see that. Cormac Ryan (MIL, $3,000, 28.9 projected points), Oscar Tshiebwe (HOU, $3,000, 28.1) and Jalen Wilson (ATL, $3,000, 21.0) have each missed every game the model projected them for. With the five set aside, the board leads with Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC, $4,900, 29.4), Kevin Durant (HOU, $7,400, 43.4) and Andrew Nembhard (IND, $5,900, 34.6), who is listed Questionable. The biggest minutes story is Oklahoma City, which is missing Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace, 79.6 minutes between them. The model adds 2.2 minutes to Hartenstein, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso and Jared McCain, and up to 7.0 to bench players.
Three of the 10 graded board picks rest on a baseline from last season. The minutes for Ryan, Tshiebwe and Wilson come from games last season, with nothing recent to check them against. The board is thin before lineups come out.
Who is out and where the minutes go
34 players are listed Out. The 15 with the most minutes, biggest first:
- Marcus Smart, HOU, $4,400, averages 32.3 minutes
- Kon Knueppel, CHA, $7,000, averages 30.9
- Chet Holmgren, OKC, $6,300, averages 29.9
- Naji Marshall, DAL, $5,500, averages 29.4
- Devin Carter, BOS, $3,900, averages 28.7
- Santi Aldama, DAL, $4,700, averages 27.5
- Jalen Williams, OKC, $6,600, averages 25.9
- Patrick Williams, CHI, $3,200, averages 25.4
- Ivica Zubac, IND, $6,800, averages 24.9
- Jamir Watkins, WAS, $3,000, averages 24.7
- Oso Ighodaro, PHX, $4,800, averages 24.5
- Steven Adams, HOU, $4,500, averages 24.1
- Donte DiVincenzo, MIN, $4,300, averages 24.1
- Cason Wallace, OKC, $4,300, averages 23.8
- Nic Claxton, CHI, $5,800, averages 22.1
Twelve more have a minutes average between 6.1 and 21.2, and seven have none in the model: Otega Oweh (OKC), Thomas Sorber (OKC), AJ Dybantsa (WAS, $6,300), Henri Veesaar (ATL), Khalifa Diop (CLE), Kylan Boswell (CHA) and Tarik Biberovic (DAL).
Oklahoma City is where the model moves most, with 79.6 teammate-minutes out. Bennett Stirtz goes from 4.1 weighted minutes to 11.0, Brooks Barnhizer from 9.6 to 16.6 and Kenrich Williams from 7.7 to 14.6, each a gain of 7.0. Jaylin Williams (14.8 to 19.4) and Aday Mara (12.8 to 17.4) gain 4.6. The four rotation players gain 2.2 each: Hartenstein from 22.8 to 25.0, Mitchell from 25.7 to 28.0, Caruso from 24.0 to 26.2 and Jared McCain from 21.9 to 24.1. The bench projections stay small: Stirtz projects to 4.3 points and Barnhizer to 11.5. Nikola Topic is listed Out. For how much minutes move when a rotation player sits, see the minutes and injuries data.
Confirmed lineups
Cleveland has published its starting five as of 6:33 PM ET: Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson. Lineups were not out yet for the other 13 teams. Nobody else below is described as a starter or a backup.
The value board
The board is the top 10 by projected points per $1,000 among players projecting 15 or more. Minutes show the recency-weighted average the model used, then expected minutes tonight. The notes show each player’s regular-season record from the model’s graded games, with minutes played for those who played.
This first table is the model’s board exactly as it will be graded. Five of its 10 rows did not play in their latest regular-season game, and none has a published starter flag. Treat those five as open questions about who plays.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Weighted avg to expected minutes | Projection (80% range) | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cormac Ryan (MIL) | $3,000 | 31.3 to 31.0 | 28.9 (16.4 to 42.3) | 9.6x | Did not play 2 of 2 |
| 2 | Oscar Tshiebwe (HOU) | $3,000 | 24.9 to 24.5 | 28.1 (15.5 to 41.5) | 9.4x | Did not play 3 of 3 |
| 3 | Jalen Wilson (ATL) | $3,000 | 26.8 to 26.4 | 21.0 (8.4 to 34.3) | 7.0x | Did not play 3 of 3 |
| 4 | Ousmane Dieng (MIL) | $3,300 | 26.5 to 25.9 | 22.3 (9.7 to 35.7) | 6.8x | Played 21.0; did not play Oct 24 |
| 5 | Ajay Mitchell (OKC) | $4,600 | 25.7 to 28.0 | 28.1 (15.5 to 41.4) | 6.1x | Played 23.0, 23.0, 28.0 |
| 6 | Alex Caruso (OKC) | $4,100 | 24.0 to 26.2 | 25.0 (12.4 to 38.3) | 6.1x | Played 25.0, 20.0, 22.0; flagged promoted |
| 7 | Jericho Sims (MIL) | $3,000 | 22.7 to 22.3 | 18.1 (7.5 to 30.3) | 6.0x | Played 2.0; did not play Oct 24 |
| 8 | Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) | $4,900 | 22.8 to 25.0 | 29.4 (16.8 to 42.7) | 6.0x | Played 17.0, 23.0, 27.0 |
| 9 | Kevin Durant (HOU) | $7,400 | 37.4 to 36.8 | 43.4 (26.0 to 57.7) | 5.9x | Played 37.0 in all 3 |
| 10 | Andrew Nembhard (IND) | $5,900 | 31.9 to 32.0 | 34.6 (20.6 to 48.8) | 5.9x | Listed Questionable; played 34.0, 32.0, 30.0 |
Andrew Nembhard (IND, $5,900) is listed Questionable, and the projection assumes he plays. If he sits, the same board rule gives the open spot to Pete Nance (MIL, $3,000): 25.0 weighted to 24.5 expected minutes, 17.2 projected points, range 6.6 to 29.4, 5.7x, on a baseline from last season. Patrick Williams (CHI), who would have been on this board, is listed Out. The order of the table above is unchanged, and this is a comparison, not a replacement.
The board without the recent did-not-plays
This second table applies the same rule to everyone who played in their latest regular-season game, or whose lineup is published and lists them as a starter. It is a comparison for readers. The graded record above is unchanged, and this screen is not part of the scorecard.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Weighted avg to expected minutes | Projection (80% range) | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) | $4,900 | 22.8 to 25.0 | 29.4 (16.8 to 42.7) | 6.0x | Played 17.0, 23.0, 27.0 |
| 2 | Kevin Durant (HOU) | $7,400 | 37.4 to 36.8 | 43.4 (26.0 to 57.7) | 5.9x | Played 37.0 in all 3 |
| 3 | Andrew Nembhard (IND) | $5,900 | 31.9 to 32.0 | 34.6 (20.6 to 48.8) | 5.9x | Listed Questionable; played 34.0, 32.0, 30.0 |
| 4 | Amen Thompson (HOU) | $7,200 | 39.3 to 38.7 | 41.1 (23.7 to 55.4) | 5.7x | Played 33.0, 36.0, 39.0 |
| 5 | Dillon Brooks (PHX) | $5,600 | 33.7 to 33.2 | 31.0 (17.0 to 45.3) | 5.5x | Played 27.0, 34.0 |
| 6 | Tyrese Haliburton (IND) | $8,300 | 32.7 to 32.8 | 45.8 (28.4 to 60.1) | 5.5x | Limited history; played 34.0, 32.0, 31.0 |
| 7 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIL) | $5,900 | 31.0 to 30.5 | 32.2 (18.1 to 46.4) | 5.5x | Played 31.0, 27.0 |
| 8 | Davion Mitchell (MIA) | $5,400 | 34.8 to 34.2 | 29.2 (16.6 to 42.5) | 5.4x | Played 33.0, 33.0 |
| 9 | Caleb Wilson (CHI) | $7,300 | 33.9 to 33.3 | 38.3 (24.3 to 52.6) | 5.2x | Limited history; played 32.0, 33.0, 38.0 |
| 10 | Jayson Tatum (BOS) | $9,500 | 36.5 to 35.9 | 49.8 (32.4 to 64.1) | 5.2x | Played 38.0, 37.0 |
Nembhard is listed Questionable and the projection assumes he plays. Haliburton and Caleb Wilson each have under 10 games of history, so their minutes are low confidence.
Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC, $4,900. He averages 21.3 minutes over his last 10 games and 22.8 weighted, and the model expects 25.0, a gain of 2.2 with 79.6 teammate-minutes out (Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Wallace). At 1.15 points per minute he projects to 29.4, range 16.8 to 42.7, against a 5x benchmark of 24.5 and a DraftKings average of 21.3. He played 17.0, 23.0 and 27.0 minutes in Oklahoma City’s three games.
Kevin Durant, HOU, $7,400. He averages 37.1 minutes and 37.4 weighted, with 36.8 expected, 0.6 below the weighted figure and no teammate minutes newly out. At 1.20 points per minute he projects to 43.4, range 26.0 to 57.7, against a 5x benchmark of 37.0 and a DraftKings average of 38.3. He played 37.0 minutes in all three of Houston’s games.
Andrew Nembhard, IND, $5,900. He is listed Questionable, and the projection assumes he plays. He averages 31.0 minutes and 31.9 weighted, with 32.0 expected, a gain of 0.1 with 24.9 teammate-minutes out (Zubac). At 1.10 points per minute he projects to 34.6, range 20.6 to 48.8, against a 5x benchmark of 29.5 and a DraftKings average of 28.4. He played 34.0, 32.0 and 30.0 minutes. Indiana also lists Aaron Nesmith Questionable, and if both sit Obi Toppin moves from 26.0 to 29.5.
Amen Thompson, HOU, $7,200. He averages 41.5 minutes and 39.3 weighted, with 38.7 expected. At 1.08 points per minute he projects to 41.1, range 23.7 to 55.4, against a 5x benchmark of 36.0 and a DraftKings average of 42.6, so the model sits 1.5 below DraftKings here. He played 33.0, 36.0 and 39.0 minutes.
Dillon Brooks, PHX, $5,600. He averages 33.1 minutes and 33.7 weighted, with 33.2 expected. At 0.95 points per minute he projects to 31.0, range 17.0 to 45.3, against a 5x benchmark of 28.0 and a DraftKings average of 19.5. Expected minutes match his average, so the 11.5-point gap with DraftKings comes from the model’s points rate. He played 27.0 and 34.0 minutes.
The five who sat out their latest game
Cormac Ryan (MIL, $3,000) did not play on Oct 21 or Oct 24, and the box score does not list him either time. Oscar Tshiebwe (HOU, $3,000) was not listed on Oct 21 or Oct 23, and his Oct 24 absence was a coach’s decision. Jalen Wilson (ATL, $3,000) was not listed on Oct 21, Oct 23 or Oct 24. Ousmane Dieng (MIL, $3,300) played 21.0 minutes on Oct 21 and sat on Oct 24 by coach’s decision. Jericho Sims (MIL, $3,000) played 2.0 minutes on Oct 21 and also sat on Oct 24 by coach’s decision. The model gives these five 22.3 to 31.0 expected minutes. Dieng is also 12.2 points above DraftKings’ average (22.3 against 10.1), so he is low confidence and this post leaves him out of the written picks. Ryan, Tshiebwe and Wilson rest on a baseline from last season. Tshiebwe joined Houston from Utah and averaged 11.3 minutes in three preseason games without a start. Wilson joined Atlanta from Brooklyn and averaged 17.0 minutes in four preseason games without a start. Both are low confidence for that reason as well. A lineup that shows any of the five as a starter would change this, and this post will not describe any of them as a starter until a lineup says so.
Alex Caruso (OKC, $4,100) is flagged as promoted by the preseason screen: he started all three preseason games and averaged 16.0 minutes, against 25.0 minutes over his last 10 games last season. The projection uses last season’s minutes.
Decisions still pending
Three rotation players are listed Questionable: Andrew Nembhard (IND, $5,900, averages 31.0 minutes), Cooper Flagg (DAL, $8,800, 29.4) and Aaron Nesmith (IND, $4,600, 27.9). If they sit, the model moves two players who are not on the board: Obi Toppin (IND) from 26.0 to 29.5 projected points and Larry Nance Jr. (IND) from 8.7 to 11.9.
Of the 39 graded players listed Questionable or Doubtful, 77% did not play, against 8% of healthy players. That is a small sample, but it is why a Questionable tag deserves a second look before lock.
How the projections have done
Six nights are graded, covering 16 slates, 1,478 projections and 1,130 players who played. On points, across the same 1,079 players, the model missed by 8.45 on average, against 8.46 for DraftKings’ season average and 8.38 for the model with its injury logic turned off. On minutes, the model missed by 6.02 against 5.95 for a plain recent average. The 80% range held the actual result 75% of the time, short of the 80% target.
The value board has trailed more. Its 160 picks hit 5x salary 22% of the time and averaged 13.4 points. Ranking by DraftKings’ season average instead gave 46% and 24.2 points. Last night the model did better on points, missing by 8.67 against 9.77 for DraftKings across 155 players, though its 30 value picks hit 20% of the time. Six nights is a small sample, and the did-not-play screen used on this page is not part of that record. Method details are in how the projections are made and graded.
Before you use any of this
Everything here is as of the snapshot time above and can change before lock, and the games tip between 7:00 PM and 8:30 PM ET. Only Cleveland’s lineup is confirmed. The 80% range means roughly four in five outcomes land inside it, so one in five do not. A range is not a guarantee, and with last season’s numbers underneath and preseason roles the model cannot see, tonight’s projections deserve extra suspicion. One player in the pool has no baseline and is left off the board.
If you want to talk through tonight’s slate, the DFS Engineer Playbook community on Skool covers NBA as well as NFL: join here.
FAQ
What does the 80% range mean?
The range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of past misses at the same projection level. About four in five outcomes should land inside it and about one in five fall outside, above or below. A player projected at 43.4 with a range of 26.0 to 57.7 can finish outside that window without the projection being wrong. So far the actual results have landed inside the range 75% of the time.
Why do a player’s minutes change when a teammate is out?
The model starts from a recent-average baseline and adjusts it for how many rotation minutes teammates are newly missing. Those minutes go to the players who remain, and the size differs for bench players, role players and high-minute players. Tonight Oklahoma City is missing 79.6 minutes, so the model adds 2.2 to its four rotation players and as much as 7.0 to players who barely play.
How are the projections made and graded?
Projected points equal points per minute over the last 30 games times expected minutes. Expected minutes start from a recent-average baseline and shift with teammate absences. Projections are saved before lock and later graded against actual results, including the value board shown above. Early in the season the inputs come from last season, and only six nights have been graded so far.