As of Oct 27, 4:50 PM ET, before tonight’s 4 games (first tip 7:30 PM ET). Injuries checked 4:50 PM ET. Projection snapshot 46da7874. Injury news can change this before lock.
The model’s top three value picks tonight are Branden Carlson (POR, $3,000, 24.3 projected points), Micah Potter (POR, $3,000, 23.4) and Precious Achiuwa (SAC, $5,000, 32.9). Carlson’s Questionable tag cleared at 4:50 PM ET, but he has no regular-season game for Portland in the model’s data, and Potter did not play in his latest game, so the first two come with real doubts about who is on the floor. Six of the 10 board picks play in one game, Portland at the Lakers, which tips at 11:00 PM ET. No lineups are published yet, and the model shows no teammate minutes newly out for any board pick, so tonight has no minute gains to point to. The Out list is long: 13 players, including four from Sacramento.
Who is out and where the minutes go
13 players are listed Out. Ten have a minutes average, biggest first:
- Tobias Harris, SAS, $5,400, averages 34.3 minutes
- Maxime Raynaud, SAC, $5,800, averages 31.8
- Keegan Murray, SAC, $5,600, averages 29.3
- Devin Carter, BOS, $4,000, averages 28.7
- Jalen Duren, DET, $6,800, averages 27.7
- Dylan Cardwell, SAC, $4,000, averages 20.9
- Shaedon Sharpe, POR, $3,000, averages 16.6
- Jose Alvarado, NYK, $3,700, averages 10.9
- Adou Thiero, LAL, $3,000, averages 7.5
- Chris Youngblood, POR, $3,000, averages 6.2
Jayden Quaintance (SAS), Ben Simmons (SAC) and Tyler Bilodeau (BKN) are also Out and have no minutes average in the model.
The model lists no players expected well above their recent average minutes tonight. Its minute gains come from teammates who are newly out, and no board pick has any teammate minutes newly out. Sacramento is missing Raynaud, Murray, Cardwell and Simmons, and Achiuwa still sits near his recent average: 31.6 weighted minutes, 31.0 expected. For how much minutes move when a rotation player sits, see the minutes and injuries data.
Confirmed lineups
No team has published a starting five as of 4:50 PM ET. Nobody below is described as a starter or a backup, and the lineup status of every pick is open.
The value board
The board is the top 10 by projected points per $1,000 among players projecting 15 or more. Minutes show the recency-weighted average the model used, then expected minutes tonight. The notes show each player’s regular-season record from the model’s graded games, with minutes played for those who played.
This first table is the model’s board exactly as it will be graded. Carlson has no regular-season game for Portland this season, and Potter did not play in his latest game. Ben Saraf (BKN) played 4.0 minutes in his latest game and did not play in two before it.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Weighted avg to expected minutes | Projection (80% range) | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Branden Carlson (POR) | $3,000 | 23.4 to 22.2 | 24.3 (11.7 to 37.6) | 8.1x | Questionable tag cleared 4:50 PM ET; no regular-season games yet; baseline from last season |
| 2 | Micah Potter (POR) | $3,000 | 21.6 to 21.2 | 23.4 (10.8 to 36.8) | 7.8x | Played 12.0; did not play Oct 23 |
| 3 | Precious Achiuwa (SAC) | $5,000 | 31.6 to 31.0 | 32.9 (18.9 to 47.2) | 6.6x | Played 29.0, 26.0, 39.0 |
| 4 | Jrue Holiday (POR) | $5,000 | 31.1 to 30.5 | 32.1 (18.1 to 46.4) | 6.4x | Played 21.0, 26.0 |
| 5 | Collin Sexton (LAL) | $4,000 | 23.7 to 23.3 | 24.9 (12.3 to 38.2) | 6.2x | Played 16.0, 20.0 |
| 6 | Ben Saraf (BKN) | $3,000 | 22.4 to 22.1 | 17.7 (7.1 to 30.0) | 5.9x | Played 4.0; did not play Oct 21 or Oct 24 |
| 7 | Ziaire Williams (LAL) | $3,900 | 26.8 to 26.4 | 22.6 (10.0 to 36.0) | 5.8x | Played 24.0, 31.0, 30.0 |
| 8 | OG Anunoby (NYK) | $5,700 | 34.5 to 33.9 | 33.0 (19.0 to 47.3) | 5.8x | Played 32.0, 34.0, 35.0 |
| 9 | Daniss Jenkins (DET) | $4,800 | 28.4 to 28.0 | 26.9 (14.3 to 40.3) | 5.6x | Played 15.0, 22.0, 38.0 |
| 10 | Ja Morant (POR) | $6,400 | 27.1 to 26.7 | 34.9 (20.9 to 49.2) | 5.5x | Played 23.0, 27.0 |
No board pick is listed Questionable or Doubtful as of 4:50 PM ET. Branden Carlson (POR, $3,000) carried a Questionable tag at the 4:04 PM ET check and it cleared. If he does not play, the same board rule gives the open spot to Deni Avdija (POR, $7,800): 33.3 weighted to 32.7 expected minutes, 42.5 projected points, range 25.1 to 56.8, 5.5x. The order of the table above is unchanged, and this is a comparison, not a replacement.
The board without the recent did-not-plays
This second table applies the same rule to everyone who played in their latest regular-season game, or whose lineup is published and lists them as a starter. Only Potter is set aside, and Deni Avdija takes the tenth spot. It is a comparison for readers. The graded record above is unchanged, and this screen is not part of the scorecard.
| Rank | Player | Salary | Weighted avg to expected minutes | Projection (80% range) | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Branden Carlson (POR) | $3,000 | 23.4 to 22.2 | 24.3 (11.7 to 37.6) | 8.1x | Questionable tag cleared 4:50 PM ET; no regular-season games yet; baseline from last season |
| 2 | Precious Achiuwa (SAC) | $5,000 | 31.6 to 31.0 | 32.9 (18.9 to 47.2) | 6.6x | Played 29.0, 26.0, 39.0 |
| 3 | Jrue Holiday (POR) | $5,000 | 31.1 to 30.5 | 32.1 (18.1 to 46.4) | 6.4x | Played 21.0, 26.0 |
| 4 | Collin Sexton (LAL) | $4,000 | 23.7 to 23.3 | 24.9 (12.3 to 38.2) | 6.2x | Played 16.0, 20.0 |
| 5 | Ben Saraf (BKN) | $3,000 | 22.4 to 22.1 | 17.7 (7.1 to 30.0) | 5.9x | Played 4.0 in his latest game |
| 6 | Ziaire Williams (LAL) | $3,900 | 26.8 to 26.4 | 22.6 (10.0 to 36.0) | 5.8x | Played 24.0, 31.0, 30.0 |
| 7 | OG Anunoby (NYK) | $5,700 | 34.5 to 33.9 | 33.0 (19.0 to 47.3) | 5.8x | Played 32.0, 34.0, 35.0 |
| 8 | Daniss Jenkins (DET) | $4,800 | 28.4 to 28.0 | 26.9 (14.3 to 40.3) | 5.6x | Played 15.0, 22.0, 38.0 |
| 9 | Ja Morant (POR) | $6,400 | 27.1 to 26.7 | 34.9 (20.9 to 49.2) | 5.5x | Played 23.0, 27.0 |
| 10 | Deni Avdija (POR) | $7,800 | 33.3 to 32.7 | 42.5 (25.1 to 56.8) | 5.5x | Played 23.0, 38.0 |
Carlson’s tag has cleared, but he still carries the doubts above. Saraf is in this table only because the screen reads his latest game, where he played 4.0 minutes against 22.1 expected. His preseason minutes and role are covered below, so treat him as low confidence.
Branden Carlson, POR, $3,000. He was listed Questionable at the 4:04 PM ET check and the tag cleared at 4:50 PM ET. His minutes come from last season, when he was with Oklahoma City. Over his last 10 games the average is 13.7 minutes, but the weighted figure the model used is 23.4, with 22.2 expected, a gap of more than 40% between the two. He joined Portland this season and averaged 8.8 minutes in four preseason games without a start, and the model has no regular-season game for him this season. At 1.10 points per minute he projects to 24.3, range 11.7 to 37.6, against a 5x benchmark of 15.0. DraftKings has no season average for him. This is the lowest-confidence pick on the board.
Micah Potter, POR, $3,000. He averages 21.1 minutes and 21.6 weighted, with 21.2 expected and no teammate minutes newly out. At 1.12 points per minute he projects to 23.4, range 10.8 to 36.8, against a 5x benchmark of 15.0 and a DraftKings average of 7.3, so the model sits well above DraftKings. That average comes from one game in which he played 12.0 minutes. He played 12.0 minutes on Oct 21 and did not play on Oct 23 by coach’s decision.
Precious Achiuwa, SAC, $5,000. He averages 30.5 minutes and 31.6 weighted, with 31.0 expected. At 1.08 points per minute he projects to 32.9, range 18.9 to 47.2, against a 5x benchmark of 25.0 and a DraftKings average of 30.3. He played 29.0, 26.0 and 39.0 minutes in Sacramento’s three games, scoring 28.3, 26.5 and 36.0 DraftKings points. Four Sacramento teammates are listed Out.
Jrue Holiday, POR, $5,000. He averages 34.3 minutes over his last 10 games and 31.1 weighted, with 30.5 expected. At 1.07 points per minute he projects to 32.1, range 18.1 to 46.4, against a 5x benchmark of 25.0 and a DraftKings average of 24.6. He has played 21.0 and 26.0 minutes in two games this season, below the 30.5 the model expects.
Collin Sexton, LAL, $4,000. He averages 26.8 minutes and 23.7 weighted, with 23.3 expected. At 1.08 points per minute he projects to 24.9, range 12.3 to 38.2, against a 5x benchmark of 20.0 and a DraftKings average of 15.9. He played 16.0 and 20.0 minutes in two games, scoring 15.3 and 16.5 DraftKings points, both under the 20.0 he needs for 5x.
The two to treat as open questions
Ben Saraf (BKN, $3,000) did not play on Oct 21 or Oct 24, both coach’s decisions, and played 4.0 minutes on Oct 25. The model expects 22.1 minutes, and DraftKings’ average for him is 3.3 against a projection of 17.7. The preseason screen flags him as demoted: he averaged 11.7 minutes in three preseason games and started none, against 25.8 minutes over his last 10 games last season. The projection uses last season’s minutes.
Branden Carlson is covered above. A lineup that shows either as a starter would change this, and this post will not describe either as a starter until a lineup says so.
Decisions still pending
Four players are listed Questionable: Derrick White (BOS, $7,000, averages 33.9 minutes), Ausar Thompson (DET, $5,900, 28.5), Scoot Henderson (POR, $4,300, 26.0) and Isaiah Joe (DET, $3,800, 12.2). If they sit, the model moves two players who are not on the board: Mitchell Robinson (BOS) from 16.4 to 19.7 projected points and Luka Garza (BOS) from 9.3 to 12.8. On the board, the model’s figures move a little if those teammates sit: Potter goes from 23.4 to 24.0, Holiday from 32.1 to 32.9, Morant from 34.9 to 35.7 and Avdija from 42.5 to 43.5, while Daniss Jenkins slips from 26.9 to 26.7.
Of the 51 graded players listed Questionable or Doubtful, 82% did not play, against 8% of healthy players. That is a small sample, but it is why a Questionable tag deserves a second look before lock. Scoot Henderson’s status may not be settled until close to the 11:00 PM ET tip.
How the projections have done
Seven nights are graded, covering 20 slates, 1,836 projections and 1,408 players who played. On points, across the same 1,348 players, the model missed by 8.39 on average, against 8.48 for DraftKings’ season average and 8.38 for the model with its injury logic turned off. On minutes, the model missed by 5.95, the same as a plain recent average. The 80% range held the actual result 76% of the time, short of the 80% target.
The value board has trailed more. Its 200 picks hit 5x salary 22% of the time and averaged 13.7 points. Ranking by DraftKings’ season average instead gave 45% and 24.5 points. Last night the model did better on points, missing by 8.07 against 8.55 for DraftKings across 278 players, and its 40 value picks hit 25% of the time. Seven nights is a small sample, and the did-not-play screen used on this page is not part of that record. Method details are in how the projections are made and graded.
Before you use any of this
Everything here is as of the snapshot time above and can change before lock, and the games tip between 7:30 PM and 11:00 PM ET. No lineups are published. The 80% range means roughly four in five outcomes land inside it, so one in five do not. A range is not a guarantee, and with last season’s numbers underneath and preseason roles the model cannot see, tonight’s projections deserve extra suspicion. One player in the pool has no baseline and is left off the board.
If you want to talk through tonight’s slate, the DFS Engineer Playbook community on Skool covers NBA as well as NFL: join here.
FAQ
What does the 80% range mean?
The range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of past misses at the same projection level. About four in five outcomes should land inside it and about one in five fall outside, above or below. A player projected at 32.9 with a range of 18.9 to 47.2 can finish outside that window without the projection being wrong. So far the actual results have landed inside the range 76% of the time.
Why do a player’s minutes change when a teammate is out?
The model starts from a recent-average baseline and adjusts it for how many rotation minutes teammates are newly missing. Those minutes go to the players who remain, and the size differs for bench players, role players and high-minute players. Tonight no board pick has teammate minutes newly out, so expected minutes sit within about 1.2 of each player’s weighted average.
How are the projections made and graded?
Projected points equal points per minute over the last 30 games times expected minutes. Expected minutes start from a recent-average baseline and shift with teammate absences. Projections are saved before lock and later graded against actual results, including the value board shown above. Early in the season the inputs come from last season, and only seven nights have been graded so far.