As of Oct 20, 1:06 PM ET, before tonight’s 3 games (first tip 3:00 PM ET). Injuries checked 1:06 PM ET. Projection snapshot d4ecd56c. Injury news can change this before lock.
Update, Oct 20, 3:10 PM ET: Rayan Rupert’s projection on this board is too high, and the model could not see why. Last season he started for Memphis and played 30 to 42 minutes in the final weeks. This preseason, with Philadelphia, he played 15 to 25 minutes in four games and came off the bench in all four. The model’s minutes baseline uses only regular-season games, so it never saw those four. One outside roster listing also has him on a two-way contract with no projection. At about 20 minutes his scoring rate projects near 17 points, barely above the 16.5 he needs for 5x. Treat his 29.5 as unreliable.
It is opening night, and every projection below starts from last season’s games. All 10 players on the board are flagged as having a baseline from last season, and 91 of the 125 players in tonight’s pool have baselines more than 45 days old, so rosters, roles and minutes may have changed since. Treat the minutes in particular as an estimate from old data.
The top three value plays by projected points per $1,000 are Rayan Rupert ($3,300, 29.5 projected points, with a large gap to his DraftKings average, see the update above), OG Anunoby ($5,300, 35.3) and Daniss Jenkins ($4,500, 29.0). The biggest minutes story is San Antonio: Tobias Harris, who averages 34.3 minutes, is listed Out, and the model adds between 0.6 and 0.9 minutes to Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie and De’Aaron Fox.
Who is out and where the minutes go
Eleven players are listed Out, biggest average minutes first:
- Tobias Harris, SAS, $5,500, averages 34.3 minutes
- Taurean Prince, DET, $3,900, averages 29.6
- Devin Carter, BOS, $4,100, averages 28.7
- Drew Eubanks, NYK, $3,000, averages 12.2
- Dominick Barlow, PHI, $3,600, averages 10.7
- Ariel Hukporti, PHI, $3,000, averages 7.5
- Nikola Topic, OKC, $4,000, averages 6.1
- Otega Oweh (OKC, $3,500), Thomas Sorber (OKC, $3,000), Jayden Quaintance (SAS, $3,400) and Tacko Fall (PHI, $3,400), with no minutes average in the export
DraftKings lists Eubanks Out and the second injury source returned no status for him, so the two sources do not agree and his absence is unconfirmed.
No player is expected well above his recent average minutes, so the minutes-mover list is empty tonight. The gains on the board are small. With Harris out, Harper goes from a 30.1 recent average to 31.0 expected, Wembanyama from 39.2 to 39.8, Champagnie from 31.6 to 32.2 and Fox from 35.8 to 36.4. Detroit loses 29.6 minutes with Prince out, yet Jenkins moves only from 29.9 to 30.1. Boston loses 28.7 with Carter out, and Payton Pritchard goes from 34.1 to 34.2. New York loses 12.2 minutes with Eubanks out, and Anunoby goes from 35.3 to 35.9. For the measured effect of an absence on minutes, see how much minutes move.
The value board
The board is the top 10 by projected points per $1,000 among players projecting 15 or more. Minutes show the recency-weighted average the model used, then expected minutes tonight. No lineups were published as of 1:06 PM ET, so no player below is described as a starter or a backup.
| Rank | Player | Team | Salary | Minutes (recent avg to expected) | Projection | 80% range | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rayan Rupert | PHI | $3,300 | 36.2 to 35.6 | 29.5 | 17.1 to 42.9 | 8.9x | Baseline from last season; came off the bench in all four preseason games; projection too high, see update; low confidence |
| 2 | OG Anunoby | NYK | $5,300 | 35.3 to 35.9 | 35.3 | 21.4 to 49.5 | 6.7x | Baseline from last season |
| 3 | Daniss Jenkins | DET | $4,500 | 29.9 to 30.1 | 29.0 | 16.6 to 42.3 | 6.4x | Baseline from last season |
| 4 | Victor Wembanyama | SAS | $10,500 | 39.2 to 39.8 | 66.2 | 48.8 to 80.3 | 6.3x | Baseline from last season |
| 5 | LeBron James | PHI | $7,500 | 37.8 to 37.3 | 47.0 | 29.6 to 61.1 | 6.3x | Baseline from last season |
| 6 | Dylan Harper | SAS | $5,100 | 30.1 to 31.0 | 31.8 | 17.9 to 46.0 | 6.2x | Baseline from last season |
| 7 | Julian Champagnie | SAS | $4,300 | 31.6 to 32.2 | 26.8 | 14.4 to 40.1 | 6.2x | Baseline from last season |
| 8 | Jalen Brunson | NYK | $7,600 | 39.3 to 40.0 | 46.8 | 29.4 to 60.9 | 6.2x | Baseline from last season |
| 9 | De’Aaron Fox | SAS | $6,100 | 35.8 to 36.4 | 36.3 | 22.4 to 50.5 | 6.0x | Baseline from last season |
| 10 | Payton Pritchard | BOS | $5,400 | 34.1 to 34.2 | 31.1 | 17.2 to 45.3 | 5.8x | Baseline from last season |
None of the 10 is tagged Questionable or Doubtful as of the snapshot, so there is no second board for sitters tonight.
Rayan Rupert, PHI, $3,300. He averages 32.9 minutes over his last 10 games, 36.2 on the recency-weighted basis, and the model expects 35.6. At 0.84 points per minute that projects to 29.5, with an 80% range of 17.1 to 42.9 and a 5x benchmark of 16.5. His DraftKings average is 12.5, so the model sits more than twice as high. Teammate absences do not explain the gap: his expected minutes are 0.5 below his recent average. His recent average is last season’s, when he started for Memphis. In four preseason games for Philadelphia he averaged 20.5 minutes, scored between 8.5 and 17.8 fantasy points and did not start, and the model leaves preseason games out of its baseline. At 20 minutes his scoring rate projects near 17 points, barely above the 16.5 he needs for 5x. He ranks first because the model could not see this, so read the pick as a limit of the method and not as a recommendation.
OG Anunoby, NYK, $5,300. He averages 34.1 minutes and 35.3 weighted, with 35.9 expected, a gain of 0.7 minutes with 12.2 teammate-minutes out (Eubanks, whose status is unconfirmed). At 1.00 points per minute he projects to 35.3, range 21.4 to 49.5. The 5x benchmark is 26.5 and his DraftKings average is 32.7.
Daniss Jenkins, DET, $4,500. His 10-game average is 26.4 minutes, but the weighted figure is 29.9 and the model expects 30.1, so the two averages differ by 3.5 minutes. At 0.97 points per minute he projects to 29.0, range 16.6 to 42.3. The 5x benchmark is 22.5 and his DraftKings average is 19.8. Prince’s 29.6 minutes are out for Detroit, but the model adds only 0.1 minutes to Jenkins.
Victor Wembanyama, SAS, $10,500. He averages 37.7 minutes and 39.2 weighted, with 39.8 expected, 0.6 more with Harris’s 34.3 minutes out. At 1.68 points per minute he projects to 66.2, range 48.8 to 80.3. The 5x benchmark is 52.5 and his DraftKings average is 51.7.
LeBron James, PHI, $7,500. He averages 38.2 minutes, 37.8 weighted, with 37.3 expected. At 1.28 points per minute he projects to 47.0, range 29.6 to 61.1, against a 5x benchmark of 37.5 and a DraftKings average of 42.1.
Decisions still pending
Two Philadelphia players are listed Questionable: Anfernee Simons ($4,400, averages 26.6 minutes) and Dean Wade ($3,800, averages 20.8). If they sit, Jabari Walker (PHI, $3,300, averages 4.9 minutes) goes from a projection of 4.4 to 7.6. On the board, Rupert goes from 29.5 to 30.7 and James from 47.0 to 48.8. Walker’s base is small, so a larger jump in points is still a small number.
How the projections have done
It is too early to judge. The public record holds 0 graded regular-season players, so there is no scorecard to quote tonight. The method is described in how the projections are made and graded.
Before you use any of this
Everything here is as of the snapshot time above and can change before lock, and the three games tip at different times (3:00 PM, 7:00 PM and 9:30 PM ET). The 80% range means roughly four in five outcomes land inside it, so one in five do not. One player in the pool is not linked to a baseline and has no projection. A range is not a guarantee, and with last season’s numbers underneath, tonight’s projections deserve more suspicion than they will later in the year.
If you want to talk through tonight’s slate, the DFS Engineer Playbook community on Skool covers NBA as well as NFL: join here.
FAQ
What does the 80% range mean?
The range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of past misses at the same projection level. About four in five outcomes should land inside it and about one in five fall outside, above or below. A player projected at 29.5 with a range of 17.1 to 42.9 can finish outside that window without the projection being wrong.
Why do a player’s minutes change when a teammate is out?
The model starts from a recent-average baseline and adjusts it for how many rotation minutes teammates are newly missing. Those minutes go to the players who remain, and the size differs for bench players, role players and high-minute players. Tonight the adjustments are under one minute for every board pick, so the effect is small.
How are the projections made and graded?
Projected points equal points per minute over the last 30 games times expected minutes. Expected minutes start from a recent-average baseline and shift with teammate absences. Projections are saved before lock and later graded against actual results. Early in the season the inputs come from last season, and no graded record exists yet to measure how close they run.