As of Friday, October 16, 2026 at 9:09 AM ET, before kickoff. Salaries, injury tags, and projections can move after this was pulled. This page records what the data looked like, not what to play, and the Week 6 review grades it once the games are played.
Most DFS content gives you a list of names and a confidence level. This page shows the signals the model read before the games, including where they disagreed, so you can see how the board was built and judge it yourself. After the games we publish the grade, hits and misses both.
How the board was built
Each player’s row draws on three inputs:
- The in-house model’s projection, built from salary, matchup, recent form, and the week’s market lines.
- Public projections, which are free and publicly available. “Public avg” is the average of whichever ones existed for that player.
- Outside opinion: 12 articles and podcasts logged this week, recorded as bullish or bearish on a player, never as a point number.
All three feed one agreement-weighted score. The board below is top 5 per position by agreement score, plus the next 20 overall. That score decides which names appear and says nothing about who to play: a high score means the inputs agree, not that the player will score.
How to read the columns
- Model and Public avg are projected DraftKings points. A large gap means the model sees something the public numbers don’t, or the reverse.
- Range shows how wide a player’s outcomes look next to others at the same position. Tight is more predictable, Wide is more boom-or-bust, and Mid sits between them.
- Notes list the injury tag at snapshot time and whether the sources split on the player.
The board, by position
Each table is sorted by salary, highest first. Split marks players where the inputs disagreed sharply. For everyone else the model, the public projections, and outside opinion roughly agreed. Agreement does not make a player safe. It means fewer inputs are arguing.
Jump to: Quarterbacks · Running backs · Wide receivers · Tight ends · Defenses · Where the sources split
Quarterbacks
5 on the board. Widest gap between the model and the public average: Jameis Winston (model 13.6, public 16.3). Sources split on Drake Maye, Caleb Williams.
| Player | Team | Salary | Model | Public avg | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | $7,500 | 26.6 | 24.9 | Tight | None |
| Drake Maye | NE | $6,600 | 22.0 | 20.7 | Tight | Split |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | $6,400 | 22.2 | 21.0 | Mid | None |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | $6,200 | 17.1 | 18.1 | Mid | Questionable, Split |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | $5,100 | 13.6 | 16.3 | Wide | None |
Running backs
12 on the board. Widest gap between the model and the public average: Derrick Henry (model 24.9, public 18.2). Sources split on Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook III, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson.
| Player | Team | Salary | Model | Public avg | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | $8,700 | 28.5 | 23.8 | Tight | None |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | $8,500 | 17.5 | 22.5 | Mid | None |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | $8,200 | 24.9 | 18.2 | Tight | Split |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | $8,000 | 17.7 | 20.2 | Tight | Split |
| James Cook III | BUF | $7,400 | 21.2 | 17.8 | Tight | Split |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | $7,000 | 17.0 | 15.0 | Mid | Split |
| Kyren Williams | LAR | $6,800 | 23.9 | 19.6 | Mid | None |
| D’Andre Swift | CHI | $6,700 | 18.6 | 14.5 | Tight | None |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | $6,500 | 17.9 | 15.9 | Mid | None |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | $6,300 | 13.2 | 15.0 | Mid | Split |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | $6,000 | 18.9 | 16.6 | Mid | Split |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | $5,700 | 7.2 | 9.0 | Tight | None |
Wide receivers
15 on the board. Widest gap between the model and the public average: DJ Moore (model 7.8, public 15.8). Sources split on Zay Flowers, Drake London, Michael Wilson, Davante Adams, Jalen Coker, DJ Moore.
| Player | Team | Salary | Model | Public avg | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | LAR | $8,100 | 24.9 | 22.6 | Tight | None |
| Chris Olave | NO | $7,600 | 20.7 | 17.3 | Mid | Questionable |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | $7,100 | 18.7 | 16.6 | Mid | Questionable, Split |
| Drake London | ATL | $7,000 | 16.9 | 17.3 | Tight | Split |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | $6,700 | 17.5 | 14.2 | Tight | Split |
| Davante Adams | LAR | $6,600 | 15.5 | 16.1 | Tight | Split |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | $6,500 | 17.0 | 15.8 | Tight | None |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | $5,900 | 13.2 | 16.9 | Tight | Split |
| DJ Moore | BUF | $5,600 | 7.8 | 15.8 | Mid | Questionable, Split |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | $5,500 | 12.1 | 11.9 | Mid | Questionable |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | $5,400 | 11.8 | 12.7 | Tight | None |
| Carnell Tate | TEN | $5,000 | 10.5 | 13.3 | Tight | None |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | $4,900 | 8.1 | 11.3 | Tight | None |
| Tre Tucker | LV | $4,700 | 9.1 | 10.8 | Tight | None |
| Germie Bernard | PIT | $4,000 | 6.2 | 10.7 | Mid | None |
Tight ends
8 on the board. Widest gap between the model and the public average: Isaiah Likely (model 7.4, public 13.3). Sources split on Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, Dallas Goedert.
| Player | Team | Salary | Model | Public avg | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | LV | $7,500 | 17.6 | 16.4 | Tight | None |
| Trey McBride | ARI | $7,200 | 21.1 | 15.3 | Tight | Split |
| Travis Kelce | KC | $5,500 | 12.8 | 11.3 | Tight | None |
| Tyler Warren | IND | $5,300 | 12.5 | 12.5 | Mid | Split |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG | $4,800 | 7.4 | 13.3 | Mid | None |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | $4,300 | 10.2 | 9.2 | Tight | Split |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | $3,900 | 13.2 | 10.4 | Tight | Split |
| Tyler Higbee | LAR | $3,400 | 8.0 | 6.9 | Mid | None |
Defenses
5 on the board. Widest gap between the model and the public average: PIT DST (model 4.1, public 8.2). Sources split on PIT DST.
| Player | Team | Salary | Model | Public avg | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC DST | KC | $3,600 | 7.0 | 8.7 | Wide | None |
| NE DST | NE | $3,500 | 10.8 | 8.1 | Mid | None |
| PIT DST | PIT | $3,300 | 4.1 | 8.2 | Wide | Split |
| TB DST | TB | $2,600 | 4.9 | 6.5 | Wide | None |
| CAR DST | CAR | $2,500 | 6.0 | 6.8 | Tight | None |
Where the sources split
19 of the 45 players had at least one input that disagreed sharply with the rest. These are the open questions on the board, whatever their raw score says. When inputs disagree, the projection carries more uncertainty than its number suggests. The disagreement can sit in one source or in outside opinion, so the averaged projections above can look close even when the inputs underneath were far apart.
- Drake Maye (QB, NE)
- Caleb Williams (QB, CHI)
- Derrick Henry (RB, BAL)
- Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
- James Cook III (RB, BUF)
- Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)
- Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
- Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
- Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
- Drake London (WR, ATL)
- Michael Wilson (WR, ARI)
- Davante Adams (WR, LAR)
- Jalen Coker (WR, CAR)
- DJ Moore (WR, BUF)
- Trey McBride (TE, ARI)
- Tyler Warren (TE, IND)
- Colston Loveland (TE, CHI)
- Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
- PIT DST (DST, PIT)
What to take from the snapshot
- Where a player’s model number sits far from the public average, the model is making a specific claim. The review tests those claims.
- A split means the projection is less settled. It says nothing about whether to play or fade the player.
- Salary tells you what a player costs, not how he will score.
Come back after the games for the grade: every projection on this page against what actually happened. The fuller discussion happens in the community.
FAQ
What is this page?
A timestamped record of the signals the model read before Week 6 kicked off: its own projection, the average of public projections, and where the inputs disagreed. It lists no recommended plays.
What does “Split” mean?
At least one input disagreed sharply with the others, either in how it ranked the player or in how many points it projected. A split means the projection is less settled. It says nothing about whether to play or fade the player.
How is the board chosen?
It is top 5 per position by agreement score, plus the next 20 overall. The agreement score picks and orders the board but is not shown, and a high score does not mean the player will score.
Does this change after the games?
No. This page is the snapshot as it stood before kickoff. The review post grades what is shown here, so the numbers are never updated.